Why PM Modi's campaign is an X factor in Karnataka polls

A two-km stretch of the highway leading to Bailhongal in Karnataka's Belagavi district is spilling over with vehicles, all of them stuck. Lining both sides of the stretch are sprawling fields of black soil on which several groups of people are leisurely waiting for the pile-up to clear to be able to board their vans back home. It's the scene after an election rally by Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Bailhongal-around 50 km east of Belagavi-which drew an estimated 200,000 people from eight assembly constituencies in the vicinity.

Expectedly, the security protocol for the event threw the transport bus schedules into a tizzy and commuters travelling between Bailhongal and Belagavi spent hours waiting for buses. Like Raju Sajjan, who is trying to flag down a two-wheeler for a lift. This is the 10th Modi rally he has attended over the years, he says proudly. An employee at a store in Belagavi, he'd taken the day off for this. Similarly, he had attended the PM's roadshow in Belagavi in February.

With the BJP holding 11 of the 18 assembly seats in Belagavi, this district at the northwestern corner of Karnataka has been a stronghold of the party. But in a close election where many factors-especially the popularity of local candidates and of the rebels-matter, the BJP is leaving nothing to chance.

For the BJP, Modi is undoubtedly an X factor. The party's Karnataka election managers say their campaign is on the upswing with the PM's unprecedented run of rallies-since April 29, he has held 13 public meetings and roadshows across the state. On May 6 and 7, the PM will hold a two-day roadshow in Bengaluru, traversing from one end of the city to the other.

All this makes the PM's schedule in this election campaign much more intensive than in 2018. Though many of his speeches are translated from Hindi to Kannada, especially in the southern districts, Modi switches to Kannada to deliver the key message—vote in the BJP with a majority.

For the party cadre, these events are a big morale booster. But even a die-hard Modi supporter like Sajjan concedes that a good number of people at the rallies are generally there for the spectacle. The rally at Bailhongal, he says, drew a massive crowd. "But you cannot say that all of them will vote in the BJP's favour. Many of them possibly don't even understand what PM Modi is saying," says Sajjan, 48, who has always voted for the BJP. He doesn't hold back his criticism of the state's BJP government—corruption and price rise being two main reasons. "People are asking their MLAs why things are so expensive and they can't answer."

While the Modi rallies draw huge crowds, their impact depends on the region. For instance, coastal Karnataka and the adjoining Malnad region, comprising Shivamogga and other districts, are BJP bastions. However, the PM has also been frequenting the Old Mysuru area, with rallies even in Hassan and Ramanagara where the party has had a weak footprint. For example, in Kolar, another district in Old Mysuru into which the BJP has been trying to make inroads, there was a sizeable turnout on April 30 at the Modi rally. The crowd enthusiastically cheered as the PM's helicopter landed at the venue.

However, while the most intent audience members were seated upfront, many of those towards the back were a mixed crowd, streaming out midway into his speech. A BJP worker from the district says that local issues, especially availability of water, matter the most in Kolar, besides the candidates' popularity. The Modi rally, he reckons, will certainly have an impact though it may contribute to a smaller extent.

Karnataka voters tend to make a distinction between local and national in elections-the most telling example of that came in 1985 when the state voted back a Janata Party government just months after a Congress sweep in the Lok Sabha elections of 1984.

In 2019, the BJP had similarly swept 25 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in a Modi wave-only three seats in the Old Mysuru region had held out. But even in these places, the PM has a strong appeal when it comes to a Lok Sabha election. With polling due next week in Karnataka, the impact of the Modi rallies remains an X factor.

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