Covid, China no challenge: BJP still poised to win clear majority if polls held today, finds MOTN survey

Far from losing political ground, if a parliamentary election were to be held at this juncture, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with Modi at the helm would retain power with a comfortable majority, finds the India Today Mood of the Nation poll.

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Covid, China no challenge: BJP still poised to win clear majority if polls held today, finds MOTN survey
As the latest India Today-Karvy Insights Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll reveals, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity is scaling heights and his government's performance gets a big thumbs-up from respondents. (Photo: Reuters)

Covid-19, a bruised economy and an unyielding China at the border -- 2020 was challenging for India in more ways than one. While the year started with mass agitations against the Citizenship Amendment Act, it ended with farmers laying siege to Delhi borders over the three newly passed farm laws.

Given the pressing emergencies before the country, any leader would have found their and their government's popularity dipping drastically.

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Complete findings of the Mood of the Nation January 2021 survey

Yet, as the latest India Today-Karvy Insights Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll reveals, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity is scaling heights and his government's performance gets a big thumbs-up from respondents.

If a parliamentary election were to be held at this time, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with Modi at the helm would retain power with a comfortable majority of 321 seats, according to the MOTN survey.

It is an improvement of five seats over the previous MOTN survey in August 2020, though it is still below the 357 seats that the NDA actually won in the 2019 general election. The NDA's rise in numbers comes mainly at the expense of other regional parties.

On the other hand, confidence in the UPA remains largely unchanged, with the alliance expected to stay at 93 seats as compared to the last MOTN poll.

As far as vote share is concerned, NDA would win 43% of votes if elections were held today vis-a-vis the 45% it gained during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, finds the Mood of the Nation survey.

Regionally, the NDA's strong focus on its Hindi, Hindu, Hindutva politics finds favour in North India (104 seats) and its smart alliance choices have made it the people's first choice in East India (100).

If there is one fortress the NDA is yet to capture, it remains southern India (32 seats). Western India, too, shows growing disenchantment with India's ruling combine (85 seats).

WHERE DO INDIVIDUAL PARTIES STAND?

According to the MOTN poll, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to get 291 parliamentary seats, 19 more than required for a simple majority of 272, ensuring that its allies do not constitute a threat to its dominance.

Significantly for the BJP, the pandemic and its management have seen it reverse the decline seen in the MOTN survey in January 2020 when the BJP tally fell below the majority mark only months after its emphatic re-election in the 2019 general election.

In comparison, the Congress has remained unaffected, expected to win 51 seats today as compared to its tally of 52 in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.